Igitero cya Iran cyahinduye amateka: Ese ubwirinzi bw’ikirere bwa Israel buracyari indakemwa?
Mu ijoro ryinjiye mu mateka y’umutekano w’Isi, mu mwaka wa 2024, Iran yakoze igikorwa kitari gisanzwe: yarashe ku gihugu cya Israel mu buryo butaziguye, ikoresheje ama-drone n’ama-missiles atandukanye, harimo ay’igihe gito n’ay’igihe kirekire. Iki gitero cyabaye nk’inkuba, kigaragaza impinduka zikomeye mu mikorere y’intambara zo mu kinyejana cya 21.
Ku nshuro ya mbere, Iran ntiyifashishije imitwe iyishamikiyeho yitwaje intwaro, ahubwo yafashe icyemezo cyo gutera Israel ku mugaragaro. Ibi byahise bituma Isi yose yibaza: ese “inkingi y’umutekano” Israel yirata yo mu kirere iracyahagaze neza?
Kuva yashingwa mu 1948, Israel yabaye igihugu gihora mu mwuka w’intambara n’igitutu cy’umutekano. Kubera iyo mpamvu, yashoye imari idasanzwe mu ikoranabuhanga ry’ubwirinzi, by’umwihariko mu bwirinzi bw’ikirere, bugenda bufatwa nk’ubw’icyitegererezo ku rwego rw’Isi.
Sisitemu nka Iron Dome, imenyerewe mu guhanura rockets ziva mu ntera ya hafi, yagiye irinda imijyi ya Israel mu bihe bikomeye. Hari kandi Arrow-2 na Arrow-3, zagenewe guhanura ama-missiles maremare cyane, harimo n’ashobora gufata intwaro za kirimbuzi, zigafatirwa kure y’ikirere cya Israel. Ibi byiyongeraho inkunga ya sisitemu za Amerika nka Patriot na THAAD, byose bikora mu bufatanye bukomeye hagati ya Israel na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Mu gitero cya Iran cyo mu 2024, ama-missiles n’ama-drone menshi byahanuriwe mu kirere, bigaragaza ko ubwirinzi bwa Israel bufite ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ibitero binini kandi byateguwe mu buryo buhanitse. Ariko nubwo byari bimeze bityo, hari bimwe byashoboye kugera ku butaka.
Nubwo bitangije bikabije, ariko byahise byemeza igitekerezo abahanga mu bya gisirikare bamaze igihe bavuga: “nta bwirinzi bw’ikirere na bumwe bushobora kuba indakemwa ku rugero rwa 100%.” Iyo igitero ari kinini, gihuriweho n’ikoranabuhanga rigezweho, burigihe habaho icyuho.
Iki gitero cyongeye kwerekana ko intambara zo muri iki kinyejana zitagishingira gusa ku masasu n’ama-missiles. Uyu munsi, intambara irimo:
Intambara y’amakuru, aho ubutasi n’amakuru yihuse bishobora guhindura icyerekezo cy’intambara;
Intambara zo mu ikoranabuhanga (cyber warfare) n’ikoreshwa ry’ubwenge buhangano;
Igitutu cya politiki n’icya dipolomasi, aho ibihano, amagambo ya politiki n’igitutu mpuzamahanga bishobora kugira ingaruka nk’iz’intwaro ku rugamba.
Nubwo Israel ifite ubwirinzi bufatwa nk’ubukomeye ku rwego mpuzamahanga, igitero cya Iran cyatumye hibazwa ikibazo gikomeye: “ese Iran ifite ubushobozi bwo kongera gutera ikoresheje uburyo bushobora kurenga ubu bwirinzi? Cyangwa se Israel iri mu mwanya w’umutekano usesuye, ariko usaba guhora uvugururwa bitewe n’ihindagurika ry’intambara?”
Icyo iki gitero cyigishije Isi ni kimwe: umutekano si ikintu gihoraho. Ni urugendo ruhora rusaba guhanga udushya, ubufatanye mpuzamahanga, n’ubwitonzi mu gufata ibyemezo bya politiki n’ibyagisirikare.
Igitero cya Iran cyo mu 2024 cyabaye ikigeragezo gikomeye ku bwirinzi bw’ikirere bwa Israel. Cyagaragaje imbaraga zacyo, ariko kinagaragaza ko no mu gihe cy’ikoranabuhanga rihanitse, nta gihugu na kimwe gishobora kwirata umutekano usesuye. Isi irimo guhinduka byihuse, intambara ntikiri ku rugamba gusa—iri no mu kirere, mu makuru, no mu ikoranabuhanga.