Intwaro Ziremereye, Ihagarikwa ry’Ibiganiro n’Imyitwarire ya Gisirikare Bikomeje Gukaza Umurego Hagati ya Iran na Amerika
Mu murwa mukuru wa Iran, Tehran, Leta y’iki gihugu yongeye kwerekana imbaraga zayo za gisirikare binyuze mu gushyira ku mugaragaro missile ya Khorramshahr-4 mu gace ka Revolution Square, aho buri wese ashobora kuyibona. Iyi missile ifite ubushobozi bwo kugera ku ntera irenga kilometero 2,000, kandi ishobora gutwara umutwaro uremereye cyane, bikayigira imwe mu ntwaro zikomeye Iran imaze kugaragaza ku rwego mpuzamahanga.
Iki gikorwa si icy’ubusanzwe; ni ubutumwa bwihariye bwo kugaragaza ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bwa Iran no gutanga ikimenyetso gikomeye ku bihugu bihanganye, cyane cyane Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, ko yiteguye kwirwanaho no kurinda inyungu zayo mu buryo bwose bushoboka.
Umubano hagati ya Iran na Amerika umaze imyaka myinshi urimo ubushyamirane. Watangiye gukara cyane nyuma ya Iranian Revolution mu 1979, aho ubutegetsi bwa Shah wari ushyigikiwe na Amerika bwahiritswe, hagashyirwaho ubuyobozi bw’Abayisilamu buyobowe na Ayatollah Khomeini. Kuva icyo gihe, ibihugu byombi byagiye bihangana mu bya politiki, ubukungu ndetse n’umutekano.
Mu myaka ya vuba, amakimbirane yarushijeho gukara nyuma y’iseswa ry’amasezerano y’ingufu za nucléaire azwi nka JCPOA, aho Amerika yivanyemo ku butegetsi bwa Perezida Donald Trump mu 2018, igashyiraho ibihano bikomeye kuri Iran. Iran na yo yahise itangira kongera ibikorwa byayo bya nucléaire, ibintu byakomeje kongera impungenge ku isi.
Iran iherutse gutangaza ko itazitabira ibiganiro byari biteganyijwe i Islamabad muri Pakistan, byagombaga guhuza impande zombi binyuze ku buhuza bwa Pakistan. Nta yindi tariki yashyizweho, kandi nta gahunda nshya iratangazwa.
Tehran ivuga ko itazemera ibiganiro bikorwa iri munsi y’igitutu cy’ibihano cyangwa igitutu cya dipolomasi. Mu by’ukuri, iyo igihugu kivuye ku meza y’ibiganiro kidasize umuryango ufunguye, biba ari ikimenyetso gikomeye cy’uko amahirwe y’amahoro aba agabanutse cyane.
Mu kindi gikorwa cyongeye gukaza umwuka mubi, ingabo za Amerika zatangaje ko zafashe ubwato bufitanye isano na Iran bwitwa MT Tifani mu gace ka Indo-Pacific, ahantu hafite akamaro kanini ku bucuruzi bwa peteroli Iran yohereza ku masoko mpuzamahanga.
Iki gikorwa gifite ingaruka nyinshi:
- Gishobora kongera umwuka mubi hagati y’ibihugu byombi
- Gishyira mu kaga umutekano w’ubwikorezi bwo mu nyanja
- Gishobora gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli ku isi bizamuka
Iran ikomeje gukurikiza politiki yo kwihagararaho (strategic resistance), igamije kurinda ubusugire bwayo no kwigenga mu by’ubukungu n’umutekano, nubwo ihura n’ibihano bikomeye by’ubukungu. Iran kandi irashaka gukomeza kugira ijambo rikomeye mu karere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, cyane cyane mu bihugu nka Syria, Iraq na Lebanon.
Ku ruhande rwa Amerika, intego nyamukuru ni ukubuza Iran gukomeza guteza imbere intwaro za nucléaire no kugabanya uruhare rwayo mu makimbirane yo mu karere. Amerika kandi ishaka kurinda inyungu zayo n’iz’abafatanyabikorwa bayo, cyane cyane Israel n’ibihugu byo mu Kigobe (Gulf States).
Kugeza ubu, umwuka uri hagati y’ibi bihugu urimo ubukana bwinshi. Ibikorwa bya gisirikare, ihagarikwa ry’ibiganiro ndetse n’ikorwa ry’intwaro zikomeye byose birerekana ko amahirwe yo kugera ku bwumvikane ari make mu gihe cya vuba.
Isi iri kwibaza niba impande zombi zizagaruka ku meza y’ibiganiro cyangwa niba hari icyiciro gishya cy’amakimbirane ashobora no kugera ku rwego rwa gisirikare.
Icyizere cy’amahoro kiracyariho, ariko kiragenda kigabanuka uko iminsi ishira.