Iran Yatanze Ubutumwa Bukomeye mu Gihe Isi Ihanze Amaso ku Muyoboro wa Strait of Hormuz
Mu gihe umutekano mpuzamahanga ukomeje gushyirwaho igitutu gikomeye, amagambo yatangajwe n’umuvugizi w’ingabo zidasanzwe za Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), yongeye kuzamura impungenge ku cyerekezo cy’umutekano mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati. Yatangaje ko mu gihe intambara yaba yongeye kubura, Iran izerekana ubushobozi bushya “abanzi bayo batigeze bamenya,” ndetse ikanifashisha uburyo bushya bw’intambara bugoye cyane mu guhangana.
Aya magambo, nubwo ashobora gufatwa nk’igice cy’intambara y’imvugo (psychological warfare), asesengurwa n’impuguke nyinshi nk’ubutumwa bufite uburemere bushobora gutegura indi ntambwe ya gisirikare cyangwa iya dipolomasi.
Iran imaze imyaka myinshi ihanganye n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba, cyane cyane Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Israel. Ibi byarushijeho gukomera kubera ibibazo bijyanye na gahunda yayo ya nikleyeri, ibihano mpuzamahanga, ndetse n’uruhare rwayo mu ntambara z’akarere binyuze mu mitwe iyishyigikiye.
Mu mateka ya vuba, Iran mu ntambara yayihuje na Iraq yagaragaje ubushobozi bwo kwihagararaho mu ntambara ndende. Mu myaka yakurikiyeho, iki gihugu cyubatse ubushobozi bukomeye mu bya gisirikare, burimo gukoresha drones, ibisasu bya rutura (missiles), ndetse n’uburyo bwo kurwanya ikoranabuhanga ry’abanzi (cyber warfare).
Kimwe mu bice bikomeje guteza impungenge ni umuyoboro wa Strait of Hormuz, inzira y’ingenzi inyuramo igice kinini cy’amavuta akoreshwa ku isi. Uyu muyoboro uhuza inyanja ya Persian Gulf n’inyanja ya Oman, ukaba ari inzira y’ingenzi ku bucuruzi bw’ibikomoka kuri peteroli.
Mu byumweru bishize, ibikorwa by’ubwikorezi bwo mu nyanja byahungabanye ku buryo bugaragara:
- Amato menshi yatangiye guhagarara cyangwa gusubira inyuma
- Abashoramari n’abatwara ibicuruzwa batangiye gutegereza kureba uko ibintu bihinduka
- Imigendekere y’amato yagabanutse ku buryo bugaragara
Ibi byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry’amavuta, aho ibiciro byatangiye kuzamuka no guhindagurika cyane.
Ibihugu bikomeye nk’u Bushinwa, bifite inyota y’amavuta, bikomeje gushaka uburyo byabona ibikomoka kuri peteroli bitanyuze mu nzira zishobora guhungabanywa n’intambara.
Amagambo y’abayobozi b’isi akomeje kugira uruhare rukomeye muri iki kibazo. Perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Donald Trump, aherutse gutangaza amagambo afatwa nk’akongeza igitutu ku bijyanye n’imikoreshereze y’umuyoboro wa Strait of Hormuz.
Ku rundi ruhande, Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, yavuze amagambo akomeye agira ati: “Abaturage bacu bize isomo. Nari narasezeranyije ko nta yindi Holocaust izongera kubaho, kandi twabigezeho. Never again.”
Aya magambo aje mu gihe agace ka Gaza Strip gakomeje kuba isibaniro ry’imirwano ikomeye, aho Israel ishinjwa n’imiryango mpuzamahanga n’abaharanira uburenganzira bwa muntu ibyaha by’intambara—ibintu Israel ihakana, ivuga ko iri kwirwanaho.
Mu rwego rwo kwerekana imbaraga, Iran imaze igihe igaragaza ubushobozi bwo:
- Guhungabanya ibikorwa bya gisirikare by’abanzi
- Gukoresha drones n’ibisasu bya rutura (ballistic missiles)
- Gukora ibikorwa byo mu bwihisho (asymmetric warfare)
Hari kandi ibimenyetso by’uko Iran ishobora kuba yarateje imbere uburyo bushya bwo kurwanya ibikoresho bya gisirikare bigezweho, harimo ikoranabuhanga rishingiye kuri radar n’itumanaho.
Ese Isi Igeze ku Ntera Nshya y’Intambara?
Nubwo bamwe babibona nk’intambara y’amagambo igamije gutinyisha no kugerageza ubushake bw’abanzi, hari n’abandi babifata nk’ibimenyetso by’ikorwa ry’intambara rishobora gututumba vuba.
Icy’ingenzi ni uko:
- Agace ka Strait of Hormuz gafite agaciro gakomeye ku bukungu bw’isi
- Ibihugu bikomeye bifite inyungu zitandukanye zidahura
- Amagambo ya politiki ashobora guhinduka ibikorwa bya gisirikare mu gihe gito
Uko ibintu bihagaze ubu, biragaragara ko isi iri mu gihe cy’ihindagurika rikomeye, aho amagambo, inyungu z’ubukungu n’ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bihurira mu guhanga ejo hazaza h’umutekano mpuzamahanga.
Nubwo hataramenyekana neza icyerekezo kizafatwa, impungenge ni nyinshi: ese ibi bizagarukira ku gitutu cya dipolomasi gusa, cyangwa ni intangiriro y’indi ntambara ishobora kugira ingaruka ku isi yose?
Ibyo, igihe ni cyo kizatanga igisubizo.
