Umwuka w’Intambara mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati: U Bushinwa Bwahaye Amerika Umuburo Ukomeye ku Bijyanye na Iran
U Bushinwa bwahaye Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika umuburo ukomeye kandi udasanzwe, buyibwira ko itakagombye kwivanga mu buryo bwa gisirikare muri Repubulika ya Islam ya Iran. Uwo muburo watanzwe mu gihe umwuka w’umutekano ukomeje kuba mubi mu karere k’U burasirazuba bwo Hagati, cyane cyane mu nyanja ya Persian Gulf.
Perezida w’u Bushinwa, Xi Jinping, yatangaje ko igihugu cye kidashobora kurebera mu gihe Iran, ifatwa nk’umufatanyabikorwa w’ingenzi wa Beijing, yagabwaho igitero na Amerika. Xi yagaragaje ko u Bushinwa bwiteguye gushyigikira Iran mu bya dipolomasi no mu rwego rw’inyungu z’umutekano, mu gihe Washington yagerageza gukoresha imbaraga za gisirikare.
Ibi byatangajwe mu gihe Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zikomeje kohereza amato n’ingabo mu nyanja ya Persian Gulf, bigaragara nk’uburyo bwo kongera igitutu kuri Iran. Perezida Donald Trump yakomeje gutangaza ko Amerika ishobora gukoresha imbaraga mu gihe Iran yakomeza kwanga kwemera amasezerano mashya ajyanye no kugenzura intwaro za nucléaire, asimbura ayo Amerika yivanyemo mu mwaka wa 2018.
U Bushinwa bufite inyungu zikomeye kandi zirambye muri Iran. Iran ni kimwe mu bihugu u Bushinwa bukuramo peteroli nyinshi, cyane cyane mu gihe Iran yafatiriwe ibihano bikomeye n’ibihugu by’u burengerazuba. Mu mwaka wa 2021, impande zombi zasinyanye amasezerano y’ubufatanye y’imyaka 25, akubiyemo ishoramari mu ngufu, ubwikorezi, ikoranabuhanga n’umutekano.
Ibyo bituma igitero icyo ari cyo cyose cyagabwa kuri Iran gifatwa nk’igihungabanya inyungu z’u Bushinwa, ndetse kikaba cyateza ihungabana rikomeye ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry’ingufu, aho peteroli n’andi masoko y’ingenzi byazamuka mu biciro ku rwego rudasanzwe.
Amakimbirane hagati ya Amerika na Iran si mashya. Yatangiye cyane nyuma ya revolisiyo ya Islam yo mu 1979, ubwo Iran yacaga umubano na Amerika ikayishinja kwivanga mu miyoborere yayo. Kuva icyo gihe, impande zombi zakomeje guhangana mu bya politiki, mu bukungu no mu bya gisirikare, cyane cyane binyuze mu bihano, intambara zidaciye mu maso (proxy wars) n’igitutu cya dipolomasi.
Kwinjira kw’u Bushinwa muri aya makimbirane bigaragaza impinduka ikomeye mu miterere y’ubutegetsi ku isi, aho isi igenda iva ku buyobozi bw’igihugu kimwe (unipolar world) igana ku isi igabanyijemo imbaraga nyinshi (multipolar world).
Ese Ibi Bishobora Guteza Intambara Mpuzamahanga?
Benshi bemeza ko aya magambo akakaye aturuka ku mpande zombi ashobora kuba ari politiki yo gutera ubwoba no kugerageza kwerekana imbaraga, aho buri gihugu gishaka kurinda inyungu zacyo kidasabye kugera ku ntambara yeruye. Gusa, mu gihe amakosa mato ya gisirikare cyangwa imyanzuro idatekerejweho yakomeza gufatwa, hari ibyago ko amakimbirane yo mu karere yahinduka ikibazo mpuzamahanga gishobora kwinjirwamo n’ibihugu bikomeye.
Ku rundi ruhande, hari icyizere ko dipolomasi ishobora kongera guhabwa umwanya, cyane cyane binyuze mu biganiro mpuzamahanga bigamije kugabanya umwuka mubi no kwirinda intambara ishobora guhungabanya isi yose.
Mu by’ukuri, amagambo akomeye ya politiki ashobora kuba agamije kwirinda intambara kurusha kuyitegura, ariko amateka agaragaza ko iyo ibihugu bikomeye byegeranye cyane mu bya gisirikare, ibyago byo kurwana byiyongera. Icyizere kiracyari mu biganiro n’ubwitonzi bwa dipolomasi, kuko intambara yeruye hagati ya Amerika, Iran n’abafatanyabikorwa babo yaba igihombo gikomeye ku mutekano n’ubukungu bw’isi yose.
