Ikimenyetso cy’Ubwiyongere bw’Umwuka Mubi mu Karere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati
Ubwato rutura bw’intambara bwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bwasatiriye amazi yegereye igihugu cya Iran, mu gihe umwuka wa dipolomasi n’igisirikare hagati y’ibihugu byombi ukomeje kurushaho kuba mubi. Ubu bwato bufite ubushobozi bwo gutwara indege z’intambara no kurasa ibisasu birimo n’ibya kirimbuzi, bufatwa nk’ikimenyetso gikomeye cy’ingufu za gisirikare za Amerika ndetse n’ubushake bwayo bwo kugaragaza ko yiteguye guhangana n’icyahungabanya inyungu zayo n’iz’abafatanyabikorwa bayo mu karere.
Nubwo ubuyobozi bwa gisirikare bwa Amerika butaratangaje ku mugaragaro intego nyakuri y’uku kwegera amazi ya Iran, bivugwa ko ari igikorwa kigamije gutanga ubutumwa busobanutse bwo gukumira (deterrence), cyane cyane mu gihe hakomeje kuvugwa amakimbirane hagati y’ibihugu byombi ku bijyanye n’umutekano wo mu nyanja no ku mushinga wa nikleyeri wa Iran.
Umubano hagati ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Iran umaze imyaka irenga mirongo ine urangwa n’ukutizerana n’amakimbirane. Ibibazo byatangiye gukomera mu 1979 nyuma y’impinduramatwara ya Kisilamu yahiritse ubutegetsi bwa Shah wari ushyigikiwe na Amerika. Kuva icyo gihe, ibihugu byombi byagiye bishyamirana ku bibazo birimo inkunga Iran ishinjwa guha imitwe yitwaje intwaro mu karere, ndetse n’ikorwa ry’umushinga wayo wa nikleyeri.
Mu 2015, Iran yasinyanye amasezerano n’ibihugu bikomeye ku isi, birimo Amerika, agamije kugabanya ibikorwa byayo bya nikleyeri mu rwego rwo gukuraho ibihano by’ubukungu. Icyakora, mu 2018 Amerika yavuye muri ayo masezerano, isubizaho ibihano bikakaye, ibintu byatumye umwuka w’umubano w’ibihugu byombi urushaho kuzamo agatotsi.
Aho ubu bwato bwasatiriye ni mu gice cy’inyanja kizwi nka Persian Gulf, ahantu hafite akamaro kanini mu bukungu bw’isi kuko haca ubucuruzi bwinshi bwa peteroli. Icyo gice kimaze imyaka myinshi kirangwa n’ubwiyongere bw’imitwe yitwaje intwaro, ibitero ku mato y’ubucuruzi ndetse n’ukutumvikana hagati ya Iran n’ibihugu by’ibituranyi bifitanye umubano wa hafi na Amerika.
Kubera akamaro k’iyo nyanja, Amerika isanzwe ifite ibirindiro bya gisirikare mu bihugu byo mu karere, kandi ikunze kohereza amato arimo ayitwaje indege z’intambara mu rwego rwo kurinda inyungu zayo no gushyigikira ibihugu by’inshuti.
Kohereza ubwato rutura bushobora gutwara indege no kurasa ibisasu bya kirimbuzi ni igikorwa gifite uburemere bukomeye mu rwego rwa politiki n’igisirikare. Ubusanzwe, amato nk’ayo aba afite indege z’intambara, kajugujugu n’ibindi bikoresho bihanitse mu ikoranabuhanga, bikaba bishobora gutanga inkunga yihuse mu gihe habaye igikorwa cy’ubugizi bwa nabi cyangwa intambara yeruye.
Abenshi bemeza ko iki gikorwa gishobora kugira ingaruka ebyiri: ku ruhande rumwe, gishobora gukumira Iran gukora ibikorwa byafatwa nk’ibibangamira amahoro; ku rundi ruhande, gishobora kongera umwuka mubi no guteza impagarara zishobora kuvamo imirwano idateganyijwe.
Mu gihe dipolomasi ikomeje kugeragezwa hagati y’ibihugu bikomeye na Iran ku bijyanye n’umushinga wa nikleyeri, ibikorwa bya gisirikare nk’ibi bishobora gushyira igitutu ku mpande zombi. Ibihugu byo mu karere, cyane cyane iby’Abarabu bifitanye umubano wa hafi na Amerika, bikurikiranira hafi izi mpinduka, kuko umutekano w’akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati ugira ingaruka ku bukungu n’umutekano w’isi muri rusange.
Muri rusange, kwegera kwa Amerika amazi ya Iran binyuze mu kohereza ubwato rutura bw’intambara ni ikimenyetso cy’uko umubano w’ibihugu byombi ukomeje kuba mubi. Nubwo nta ntambara yeruye iratangazwa, ibikorwa nk’ibi byerekana ko amahitamo ya gisirikare akiri ku meza, mu gihe amahanga akomeje guhamagarira impande zombi kugabanya ubushyamirane no gushakira ibisubizo mu nzira ya dipolomasi.
