“Intambara ya Iran Ishobora Guhindura Isi Burundu” — Amerika mu Kibazo Kidasanzwe, Iran na yo Yerekanye Imbaraga Zitunguranye
Intambara iri hagati ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Iran ikomeje gufata indi ntera, aho abasesenguzi mpuzamahanga benshi bavuga ko ishobora kuba imwe mu ntambara zizahindura imiterere y’ubutegetsi bw’isi mu buryo bukomeye kurusha uko benshi babyibwiraga.
Mu gihe Perezida Donald Trump akomeje gushyira igitutu gikomeye kuri Tehran, ayisaba kwemera ibyo Amerika ishyiraho kugira ngo ibintu bisubire mu buryo, hari impungenge zikomeye ko Iran iramutse ibyanze, Washington ishobora gutangiza ibitero bya nyuma bikomeye cyane byakurura isi yose mu bibazo by’umutekano, ubukungu ndetse n’ihungabana rikomeye rya dipolomasi.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ubu isi iri hagati y’inzira ebyiri zishobora guhindura amateka:
Iran kwemera ibiganiro no kugabanya ubushyamirane;
Cyangwa Amerika igakomeza intambara yeruye, ishobora gukurura u Burusiya, u Bushinwa ndetse n’ibindi bihugu bikomeye.
Ubushyamirane hagati ya Amerika na Iran si ubwa none. Bwatangiye gukara cyane kuva mu mwaka wa 1979, nyuma y’impinduramatwara ya Kiyisilamu muri Iran yahiritse ubutegetsi bwa Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi bwari bushyigikiwe na Amerika.
Kuva icyo gihe:
Amerika yafatiye Iran ibihano byinshi;
Iran na yo itangira kwiyegereza ibihugu birwanya ubutegetsi bwa Amerika;
Intambara zishingiye ku ntwaro kirimbuzi, peteroli n’ubutegetsi bwo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati zikomeza gukaza umwuka mubi.
Mu myaka yashize, Amerika yagiye ishinja Iran gutera inkunga imitwe yitwaje intwaro nka Hezbollah, Houthis ndetse n’indi mitwe ikorera muri Syria, Iraq na Lebanon. Iran na yo igashinja Amerika gushaka gusenya ubusugire bwayo no kugenzura umutungo wa peteroli wo muri ako karere.
Raporo nshya yashyizwe hanze n’akanama ka Kongere ya Amerika gashinzwe ubushakashatsi (CRS), ivuga ko Amerika imaze gutakaza ibikoresho byinshi bya gisirikare muri iyi ntambara.
Iyo raporo ishingiye ku makuru ya Pentagon, CENTCOM ndetse n’ibinyamakuru bikomeye byo muri Amerika.
Mu bikoresho Amerika imaze gutakaza harimo:
Indege z’intambara zirenga 40;
Amadrone menshi ya MQ-9 Reaper na MQ-4C Triton;
Kajugujugu za HH-60W Jolly Green II;
Indege zidasanzwe za MC-130J Commando II;
N’indege za F-15E Strike Eagle ndetse na F-35 Lightning.
Hari n’indege z’ingenzi cyane za KC-135 Stratotanker zinywesha izindi ndege amavuta.
Raporo kandi ivuga ko amafaranga Amerika imaze gukoresha muri iyi ntambara arenga miliyari 29 z’amadolari y’Amerika, menshi muri yo akaba ari ayo gusana ibikoresho byangiritse no kongera kohereza abasirikare mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Nubwo Amerika ifite igisirikare gikomeye cyane ku isi, iyi ntambara yagaragaje ko Iran na yo ifite ubushobozi budasanzwe bwo kwihimura no guhangana n’ibitero bikomeye.
Abasesenguzi bamwe bavuga ko:
Iran yashoboye kwangiza igitinyiro cya Amerika;
Yerekanye ko ibihugu bitari ibihangange bishobora guhangana n’ingufu za Washington;
Kandi ko ubwirinzi bwayo bwo mu kirere bwateye intambwe ikomeye.
Iran kandi yakomeje gukoresha:
Misile ndende;
Amadrone ahambaye;
N’uburyo bwa “asymmetric warfare”, bwo kurwana mu buryo bugora igihugu gikomeye nka Amerika.
Hari amakuru avuga ko hari indege za F-35 na F-15 zarasiwe mu kirere cya Iran, ibintu byafatwaga nk’ibidashoboka mu myaka yashize.
Abasesenguzi benshi bavuga ko iyi ntambara ishobora kuba inyungu ikomeye ku Bushinwa n’u Burusiya.
U Bushinwa:
Bushobora kubona amahirwe yo kongera kugura peteroli ya Iran ku giciro gito;
Bukanakomeza kwagura ubukungu bwabwo mu gihe Amerika ihugiye mu ntambara.
U Burusiya:
Bushobora gukomeza kwigaragaza nk’umufatanyabikorwa wa Iran;
Bukagabanya igitutu Amerika yashyiraga ku ntambara ya Ukraine;
Kandi bukabona uburyo bwo gukomeza intege nke za NATO.
Hari abasesenguzi bavuga ko Amerika ishobora kuba iri gutakaza buhoro buhoro ubuyobozi bwayo ku isi, cyane cyane mu gihe ibihugu byinshi biri gutangira kwiyegereza BRICS aho kwishingikiriza kuri Washington.
Niba intambara yakomeza gukaza umurego:
Israel ishobora guhura n’ibitero byinshi bya misile;
Ibihugu nka Saudi Arabia, UAE na Bahrain bishobora kwibasirwa kubera ubufatanye bifitanye na Amerika.
Ibikorwa remezo bya peteroli bishobora kwangirika bikomeye, ibintu byatuma:
Ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka ku rwego rutigeze rubaho;
Ubukungu bw’isi bukinjira mu ihungabana rikomeye;
Ibihugu bikennye bikarushaho guhura n’inzara n’izamuka ry’ibiciro.
Iki ni cyo kibazo gikomeje kwibazwa n’abatari bake.
Mu myaka myinshi ishize, Amerika yafatwaga nk’igihugu kidatsindwa mu bya gisirikare. Ariko iyi ntambara yerekanye ibintu byinshi bishya:
Intambara z’iki gihe zisigaye zishingira cyane ku ikoranabuhanga;
Amadrone na misile bihendutse bishobora kwangiza ibikoresho bihenda cyane;
Kandi ibihugu bikomeye bishobora kugorwa n’intambara ndende.
Nubwo Amerika igifite igisirikare gikomeye cyane ku isi, hari abavuga ko:
Igikundiro cyayo ku rwego mpuzamahanga kiri kugabanuka;
Abafatanyabikorwa bamwe batangiye kuyishidikanyaho;
Mu gihe Iran, u Bushinwa n’u Burusiya bikomeje kwigarurira imitima y’ibihugu bimwe na bimwe birwanya ubutegetsi bwa Amerika.
Iyi ntambara ntabwo ireba Iran na Amerika gusa. Ni intambara ishobora:
Guhindura ubukungu bw’isi;
Guhindura ubutegetsi mpuzamahanga;
No gutuma habaho isi nshya itakiyoborwa n’igihugu kimwe gusa.
Mu gihe Donald Trump akomeje kuvuga ko Amerika iri gutsinda, Iran na yo ivuga ko igifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza urugamba igihe kirekire.
Ikibazo gikomeye gisigaye ni kimwe:
Ese isi iri hafi kwinjira mu ntambara nshya y’ibihangange ishobora guhindura amateka y’isi burundu?
