Isi Iri Guhinduka: U Bushinwa Bwatangiye Gusatira Amerika ku Mugaragaro

Mu gihe isi ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi ihangana rikomeye hagati ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’u Bushinwa, amagambo aherutse kuvugwa na Perezida Donald Trump nyuma y’uruzinduko yagiriye i Beijing yongeye gukurura impaka zikomeye muri dipolomasi mpuzamahanga. Ibi bije kandi mu gihe u Bushinwa bwamaganye umwanzuro Amerika yashyize imbere muri Loni ku kibazo cya Strait of Hormuz, buvuga ko ushobora kongera ubushyamirane aho kubushakira umuti.

U Bushinwa bwatangaje ko ikibazo cy’umutekano mu karere ka Persian Gulf gikwiye gukemurwa binyuze mu nzira z’ibiganiro bya dipolomasi no kugabanya ubushyamirane hagati y’ibihugu birebwa n’iki kibazo, aho gukoresha igitutu cya politiki cyangwa ibikorwa bya gisirikare. Beijing ivuga ko uburyo Amerika iri kwitwaramo bushobora gushyira isi mu kaga gakomeye, cyane cyane ku bijyanye n’umutekano w’inzira ya Hormuz inyuzwamo igice kinini cya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi.

Strait of Hormuz ni inzira y’ingenzi cyane mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, kuko inyuzwamo peteroli iva mu bihugu byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ijya ku masoko akomeye ku isi. Iyo nzira igenzurwa cyane n’ibibazo bya Iran, Amerika ndetse n’ibindi bihugu bikomeye bifite inyungu muri ako karere. U Bushinwa, nk’igihugu gikoresha peteroli nyinshi cyane ku isi, bufite inyungu zikomeye mu mutekano w’iyi nzira, ari na yo mpamvu bukomeje kwitondera cyane uburyo Amerika yitwara muri aka karere.

Ibi byose bibaye mu gihe Donald Trump yavuze amagambo akomeje guteza urujijo ku murongo wa Amerika ku kibazo cya Taiwan. Trump yavuze ko u Bushinwa ari “igihugu kinini kandi gikomeye cyane,” mu gihe Taiwan ari “ikirwa gito cyane.” Yongeyeho ko Taiwan iri hafi y’u Bushinwa ku ntera ya miles 59 gusa, mu gihe Amerika iri kure ho miles zirenga 9,500, ibintu yavuze ko bituma ikibazo cyo kurinda Taiwan kiba gikomeye cyane ku ruhande rwa Washington.

Aya magambo ya Trump yahise akurura impaka nyinshi mu banyapolitiki, abasesenguzi ba dipolomasi ndetse no mu nzego z’umutekano mpuzamahanga. Hari ababona ko ashobora kuba ari ikimenyetso cy’uko Amerika ishobora kuba iri gutangira gusubiramo uburyo bwo kwitwara ku kibazo cya Taiwan, cyane cyane mu gihe ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bw’u Bushinwa bukomeje kwiyongera ku muvuduko udasanzwe.

Mu myaka yashize, Amerika yakomeje kugaragaza ko ishobora gutabara Taiwan mu gihe yaba itewe n’u Bushinwa, nubwo Washington idakunze kubivuga mu buryo butaziguye. Politiki ya Amerika kuri Taiwan yubakiye ku cyo bita “strategic ambiguity,” bivuze ko Amerika itavuga yeruye niba yatabara cyangwa itatabara Taiwan igihe yaba itewe, ariko ikagumana ubushobozi bwo kubikora.

Gusa amagambo ya Trump ari gutuma benshi bibaza niba Amerika yaba itangiye kubona ko guhangana n’u Bushinwa ku kibazo cya Taiwan bishobora kuba bihenze cyane kandi bigoye kurusha uko byatekerezwaga mbere. Abasesenguzi bamwe bavuga ko Washington iri kubona ko Beijing imaze kugira imbaraga zikomeye mu bya gisirikare, ubukungu ndetse n’ikoranabuhanga, ku buryo guhanganira Taiwan bishobora guteza intambara ikomeye ishobora kugira ingaruka ku isi yose.

Ku ruhande rw’u Bushinwa, Beijing ikomeje gufata Taiwan nk’igice cyayo kandi ikavuga ko izakora ibishoboka byose kugira ngo icyo kirwa kizasubire munsi y’ubutegetsi bwayo. Perezida Xi Jinping yakomeje gusubiramo kenshi ko “kongera guhuza Taiwan n’u Bushinwa” ari imwe mu ntego zikomeye igihugu cye kidateze kureka.

U Bushinwa kandi bukomeje kongera ibikorwa bya gisirikare hafi ya Taiwan, harimo kohereza indege z’intambara n’amato ya gisirikare mu mazi akikije icyo kirwa. Ibi bikorwa bikomeje gutera impungenge ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bw’Isi, cyane cyane Amerika n’abafatanyabikorwa bayo nka Japan na Australia.

Hari abasesenguzi bavuga ko amagambo ya Trump ashobora kuba ari uburyo bwo kugabanya ubushyamirane hagati ya Washington na Beijing, cyane cyane mu gihe ubukungu bw’isi bukomeje guhura n’ibibazo bikomeye birimo ihungabana ry’ubucuruzi, ibibazo bya peteroli ndetse n’intambara z’ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu bikomeye.

Ariko abandi babona ko ayo magambo ashobora guha u Bushinwa icyizere cy’uko Amerika ishobora kudashaka kujya mu ntambara yeruye kubera Taiwan. Ibyo bishobora gutuma Beijing irushaho gukaza igitutu kuri Taiwan mu buryo bwa gisirikare no muri dipolomasi.

Kugeza ubu, isi ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi uburyo Amerika n’u Bushinwa bari kwitwara muri ibi bibazo bikomeye bibiri: ikibazo cya Strait of Hormuz n’icya Taiwan. Abasesenguzi benshi bemeza ko umubano hagati y’ibi bihugu byombi ushobora gukomeza kuba ishingiro rikomeye ry’umutekano n’ubukungu bw’isi mu myaka iri imbere.